Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation

Char-lee McLennan; T D Pham; L Ruhanen; B W Ritchie; Brent D Moyle

doi:10.1080/09669582.2012.685173

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Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation

Char-lee McLennan, T D Pham, L Ruhanen, B W Ritchie and Brent D Moyle

Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Vol.20(6), pp.801-822

2012

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.685173

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Abstract

tourism transformation

long-range planning

scenario analysis

Gold Coast

Murweh Shire

Hervey Bay

Many traditionally agricultural dependent economies have transformed towards service industries, such as tourism. This transformation resulted in significant impacts upon economies, communities and the environment. However, existing indicators to measure the impacts of tourism on regions have not been examined across the transformation process, leaving a gap in the understanding of long-range planning for tourism. Therefore, this paper investigates the relationship between economic, social and environmental indicators across the three main phases of tourism transformation. The three broad phases of tourism transformation can be observed to commence (inception), grow (construction) and then enter a steady state (urbanisation). To investigate this, our research surveyed 303 residents across three local areas at different stages of economic development and tourism dependency, to develop tourism, economic, social and environmental indicators. Employing counter-factual data, generalised ordinal logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the impact of changes in tourism on the economy, society and the environment across the regions. The findings indicate that the relationships between tourism and the triple bottom line differ depending on the stage of development. This research provides insight into local-level long-range planning, which can enable more sustainable tourism transformation, and explores avenues for future research. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Details

Title: Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation
Authors: Char-lee McLennan (Author) - University of Queensland
T D Pham (Author) - University of Queensland
L Ruhanen (Author) - University of Queensland
B W Ritchie (Author) - University of Queensland
Brent D Moyle (Author) - Griffith University
Publication details: Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Vol.20(6), pp.801-822
Publisher: Routledge
Date published: 2012
DOI: 10.1080/09669582.2012.685173
ISSN: 0966-9582
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; USC Business School - Legacy
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450605102621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism

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