Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Sharif A Mukul; Mohammed Alamgir; Md Shawkat I Sohel; Petina L Pert; John L Herbohn; Stephen M Turton; Md Saiful I Khan; Shifath Ahmed Munim; A H M Ali Reza; William F Laurance

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383

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Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

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Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Sharif A Mukul, Mohammed Alamgir, Md Shawkat I Sohel, Petina L Pert, John L Herbohn, Stephen M Turton, Md Saiful I Khan, Shifath Ahmed Munim, A H M Ali Reza and William F Laurance

Science of the Total Environment, Vol.663, pp.830-840

2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383

PMID: 30738263

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Abstract

Bangladesh

Bengal tiger

climate change

MaxEnt

sea-level rise

sundarbans

The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

Details

Title: Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans
Authors: Sharif A Mukul (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast
Mohammed Alamgir (Author) - James Cook University
Md Shawkat I Sohel (Author) - University of Queensland
Petina L Pert (Author) - CSIRO Land and Water
John L Herbohn (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast
Stephen M Turton (Author) - Central Queensland University
Md Saiful I Khan (Author) - Otago University, New Zealand
Shifath Ahmed Munim (Author) - Independent University Bangladesh, Bangladesh
A H M Ali Reza (Author) - Delta State University, United States
William F Laurance (Author) - James Cook University
Publication details: Science of the Total Environment, Vol.663, pp.830-840
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date published: 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383
ISSN: 0048-9697
PMID: 30738263
Organisation Unit: Australian Centre for Pacific Islands Research; Tropical Forests and People Research Centre; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Forest Research Institute
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99451502002621
Output Type: Journal article

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Web Of Science research areas: Environmental Sciences

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