Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

Jorge Garcia Molinos; Benjamin S Halpern; David S Schoeman; Christopher J Brown; Wolfgang Kiessling; Pippa J Moore; John M Pandolfi; Elvira S Poloczanska; Anthony J Richardson; Michael T Burrows

doi:10.1038/nclimate2769

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Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

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Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

Jorge Garcia Molinos, Benjamin S Halpern, David S Schoeman, Christopher J Brown, Wolfgang Kiessling, Pippa J Moore, John M Pandolfi, Elvira S Poloczanska, Anthony J Richardson and Michael T Burrows

Nature Climate Change, Vol.6, pp.83-88

2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2769

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Abstract

climate change

biodiversity

adaptive ecosystem management

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management1 but remains a critical knowledge gap2. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories3, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways4 (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies5, 6. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts7, 8 highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

Details

Title: Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity
Authors: Jorge Garcia Molinos (Author) - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Benjamin S Halpern (Author) - University of California, United States
David S Schoeman (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
Christopher J Brown (Author) - University of Queensland
Wolfgang Kiessling (Author) - Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany
Pippa J Moore (Author) - Edith Cowan University
John M Pandolfi (Author) - University of Queensland
Elvira S Poloczanska (Author) - CSIRO Oceans and Atmospheric Flagship
Anthony J Richardson (Author) - University of Queensland
Michael T Burrows (Author) - Scottish Association for Marine Science, United Kingdom
Publication details: Nature Climate Change, Vol.6, pp.83-88
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Date published: 2016
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2769
ISSN: 1758-678X
Copyright note: Copyright © 2016 Nature Publishing Group. The accepted version is reproduced here in accordance with the publishers copyright policy. The definitive version is available from http://www.nature.com/icb/
Organisation Unit: School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99449160102621
Output Type: Journal article

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