Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley; Lara L. Sousa; Nicolas E. Humphries; Kátya Abrantes; Gonzalo Araujo; Steffen S. Bach; Adam Barnett; Michael L. Berumen; Sandra Bessudo Lion; Camrin D. Braun; Elizabeth Clingham; Jesse E. M. Cochran; Rafael de la Parra; Stella Diamant; Alistair D. M. Dove; Carlos M. Duarte; Christine L. Dudgeon; Mark V. Erdmann; Eduardo Espinoza; Luciana C. Ferreira; Richard Fitzpatrick; Jaime González Cano; Jonathan R. Green; Hector M. Guzman; Royale Hardenstine; Abdi Hasan; Fábio H. V. Hazin; Alex R. Hearn; Robert E. Hueter; Mohammed Y. Jaidah; Jessica Labaja; Felipe Ladino; Bruno C. L. Macena; Mark G. Meekan; John J. Morris; Bradley M. Norman; Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma; Simon J. Pierce; Lina Maria Quintero; Dení Ramírez-Macías; Samantha D. Reynolds; David P. Robinson; Christoph A. Rohner; David R. L. Rowat; Ana M. M. Sequeira; Marcus Sheaves; Mahmood S. Shivji; Abraham B. Sianipar; Gregory B. Skomal; German Soler; Ismail Syakurachman; Simon R. Thorrold; Michele Thums; John P. Tyminski; D. Harry Webb; Bradley M. Wetherbee; Nuno Queiroz; David W. Sims

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

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Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

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Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley, Lara L. Sousa, Nicolas E. Humphries, Kátya Abrantes, Gonzalo Araujo, Steffen S. Bach, Adam Barnett, Michael L. Berumen, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Camrin D. Braun, …

Nature Climate Change, Vol.14, pp.1282-1291

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

PMCID: PMC11618081

PMID: 39650805

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Abstract

climate-change ecology

climate-change impacts

conservation biology

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr −1 ). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

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Title: Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping
Authors: Freya C. Womersley (Corresponding Author) - University of Southampton
Lara L. Sousa (Author) - University of Oxford
Nicolas E. Humphries (Author) - Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom
Kátya Abrantes (Author) - James Cook University
Gonzalo Araujo (Author) - Qatar University
Steffen S. Bach (Author) - Qatar Whale Shark Research
Adam Barnett (Author) - James Cook University
Michael L. Berumen (Author) - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Sandra Bessudo Lion (Author) - Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos (Colombia)
Camrin D. Braun (Author) - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Elizabeth Clingham (Author) - St Helena Government (Saint Helena)
Jesse E. M. Cochran (Author) - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Rafael de la Parra (Author) - Ch’ooj Ajuail AC (Mexico)
Stella Diamant (Author) - Madagascar Whale Shark Project (Madagascar, Nosy Be) - MWSP
Alistair D. M. Dove (Author) - Georgia Aquarium (United States)
Carlos M. Duarte (Author) - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Christine L. Dudgeon (Author) - The University of Queensland
Mark V. Erdmann (Author) - University of Auckland
Eduardo Espinoza (Author) - Galapagos National Park
Luciana C. Ferreira (Author) - Australian Institute of Marine Science
Richard Fitzpatrick (Author) - James Cook University
Jaime González Cano (Author) - Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (Mexico)
Jonathan R. Green (Author) - Galápagos Whale Shark Project
Hector M. Guzman (Author) - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Royale Hardenstine (Author) - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Abdi Hasan (Author) - Konservasi Indonesia
Fábio H. V. Hazin (Author) - Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco
Alex R. Hearn (Author) - Galápagos Whale Shark Project
Robert E. Hueter (Author) - Mote Marine Laboratory
Mohammed Y. Jaidah (Author) - Galápagos Whale Shark Project
Jessica Labaja (Author) - Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines
Felipe Ladino (Author) - Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos (Colombia)
Bruno C. L. Macena (Author) - Institute of Marine Research
Mark G. Meekan (Author) - Australian Institute of Marine Science
John J. Morris (Author) - Mote Marine Laboratory
Bradley M. Norman (Author) - Murdoch University
Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma (Author) - MigraMar (United States)
Simon J. Pierce (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Lina Maria Quintero (Author) - Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos (Colombia)
Dení Ramírez-Macías (Author)
Samantha D. Reynolds (Author) - The University of Queensland
David P. Robinson (Author) - Qatar Whale Shark Research
Christoph A. Rohner (Author) - Marine Megafauna Foundation
David R. L. Rowat (Author) - Marine Conservation Society Seychelles
Ana M. M. Sequeira (Author) - Australian National University
Marcus Sheaves (Author) - James Cook University
Mahmood S. Shivji (Author) - Nova Southeastern University
Abraham B. Sianipar (Author) - Elasmobranch Institute Indonesia (Indonesia)
Gregory B. Skomal (Author) - Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries (United States)
German Soler (Author) - Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos (Colombia)
Ismail Syakurachman (Author) - Konservasi Indonesia
Simon R. Thorrold (Author) - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Michele Thums (Author) - Australian Institute of Marine Science
John P. Tyminski (Author) - Mote Marine Laboratory
D. Harry Webb (Author) - Georgia Aquarium (United States)
Bradley M. Wetherbee (Author) - Nova Southeastern University
Nuno Queiroz (Author) - Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos
David W. Sims (Author) - Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom
Publication details: Nature Climate Change, Vol.14, pp.1282-1291
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Date published: 2024
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5
ISSN: 1758-6798
PMID: 39650805; PMC11618081
Copyright note: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Data Availability: See article for data availability.
Grant note: Funding to support the data analysis was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP Studentship (no. NE/S007210/1) to F.C.W., a UK Natural Environment Research Council Discovery Science Grant to D.W.S. (no. NE/R00997/X/1) and a European Research Council Advanced Grant (no. 883583 OCEAN DEOXYFISH) to D.W.S. within the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. Additional funding support was provided by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (nos. PTDC/BMA/3536/2021 and CEECIND/02857/2018) and the EU Horizon 2020 Programme (no. 857251 to N.Q.) D.W.S. was supported by a Marine Biological Association Senior Research Fellowship.
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991066157302621
Output Type: Journal article

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