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Capital Account Flows, Consumption Ratios and the Middle‐Income Trap
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Capital Account Flows, Consumption Ratios and the Middle‐Income Trap

Daping Zhao, Sajid Anwar and William R J Alexander
Review of Development Economics, Vol.23(3), pp.1459-1476
2019
url
https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12597View
Published Version

Abstract

capital account flows consumption ratio growth slow-down middle-income trap
The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950-2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle-income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.

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