Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction?

Eryn L Grant; Paul M Salmon; Nicholas J Stevens; Natassia Goode; Gemma J M Read

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.12.018

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Journal article

Peer reviewed

Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction?

Eryn L Grant, Paul M Salmon, Nicholas J Stevens, Natassia Goode and Gemma J M Read

Safety Science, Vol.104, pp.99-109

2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.12.018

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Abstract

accident causation

accident prediction

STAMP

Normal Accident Theory

risk management framework

Drift and FRAM

The prediction of accidents, or systems failure, should be driven by an appropriate accident causation model. Whilst various models exist, none is yet universally accepted, but elements of different models are. The paper presents the findings from a review of the most frequently cited systems based accident causation models to extract a common set of systems thinking tenets that could support the prediction of accidents. The review uses the term "systems thinking tenet" to describe a set of principle beliefs about accidents causation found in models proposed by Jens Rasmussen, Erik Hollnagel, Charles Perrow, Nancy Leveson and Sidney Dekker. Twenty-seven common systems thinking tenets were identified. To evaluate and synthesise the tenets, a workshop was conducted with subject matter experts in accident analysis, accident causation, and systems thinking. The evaluation revealed that, to support accident prediction, the tenets required both safe and unsafe properties to capture the influences underpinning systematic weaknesses. The review also shows that, despite the diversity in the models there is considerable agreement regarding the core tenets of system safety and accident causation. It is recommended that future research involves applying and testing the tenets for the extent to which they can predict accidents in complex systems.

Details

Title: Back to the future: What do accident causation models tell us about accident prediction?
Authors: Eryn L Grant (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Paul M Salmon (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Nicholas J Stevens (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Natassia Goode (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Gemma J M Read (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Arts, Business and Law
Publication details: Safety Science, Vol.104, pp.99-109
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2017.12.018
ISSN: 0925-7535
Grants: A new complex systems approach to road trauma: Applying systems thinking to the fatal five, FT140100681, Australian Research Council (Australia, Canberra) - ARC
Organisation Unit: Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems; School of Health - Psychology; School of Law and Society; School of Social Sciences - Legacy; Bioclimatic and Sociotechnical Cities Lab
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450447802621
Output Type: Journal article

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