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Published VersionCC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand's trade
Resources Policy, Vol.92, pp.1-8
2024
Abstract
We analyze how different types of oil price shocks affect trade and whether these effects are asymmetric. Our focus is on New Zealand, which has historically been a net oil importer but recently transitioned to an import-only model to meet its needs for finished petroleum products. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we identify oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks using a recursive structural vector autoregression model. Then, we study whether the effects of these shocks on New Zealand's exports to and imports from its key trading partners—Australia, China, and the United States—are asymmetric using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models. The results show differences in the effects of different types of oil price shocks on exports and imports in the short and long run; however, there is limited evidence of asymmetries in these effects, especially in the case of exports. Exports to Australia and China, the most critical markets for New Zealand's exporters, are largely insensitive to oil price shocks.
Details
- Title
- Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand's trade
- Authors
- Puneet Vatsa (Corresponding Author) - Lincoln UniversityJungho Baek - University of Alaska Fairbanks
- Publication details
- Resources Policy, Vol.92, pp.1-8
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- Date published
- 2024
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104999
- ISSN
- 1873-7641; 0301-4207
- Copyright note
- © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Organisation Unit
- School of Business and Creative Industries
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991148838902621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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