Applying Optimal Choices for Real Powertrain and Leightweighting Technology Options to Passenger Vehicles under Uncertainty

Erik Wilhelm; Johannes Hofer; Lynette Cheah

doi:10.3846/16484142.2017.1286611

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Applying Optimal Choices for Real Powertrain and Leightweighting Technology Options to Passenger Vehicles under Uncertainty

Journal article

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Applying Optimal Choices for Real Powertrain and Leightweighting Technology Options to Passenger Vehicles under Uncertainty

Erik Wilhelm, Johannes Hofer and Lynette Cheah

Transport, Vol.32(2), pp.209-220

2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2017.1286611

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Abstract

cost

fuel consumption

models and algorithms

uncertainty

optimization

lightweighting

powertrain efficency

strategy development

This paper illustrates how cost-constrained optimization based on a set of real lightweighting and powertrain efficiency options can be used to guide decision-making for automotive manufacturers. The paper provides a method for answering the question posed by Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): 'given a maximum amount additional cost which can be passed on to consumers for fuel-saving technology with uncertain manufacturing cost, to what degree should it be spent on lightweighting versus powertrain efficiency improving technology'. The optimization is formulated as a 0-1 knapsack problem, and dynamic programming is used to find the global optimum technology combination at various levels of maximum up-front technology cost. This paper builds on previous work, which showed that for continuous marginal cost functions under uncertainty, a decision heuristic to either implement lightweighting technology or efficiency technology but not both under cost constraints was preferable. This work extends that result to provide more quantitative strategies for dealing with uncertainty, and finds that, despite uncertainty, optimum lightweighting and efficiency technology selections can be made for the real discrete cases studied. It is found that while the optimum efficiency technology set is highly sensitive to the up-front cost a consumer is willing to pay for future operational savings, lightweighting options are often selected preferentially to efficiency reduction measures. In the same sense, although both technologies are very sensitive to discount rate, lightweighting technologies are less sensitive. Fully hybridized vehicles emerge as a robust option, and, surprisingly, rank highly together with fully electric powertrains.

Details

Title: Applying Optimal Choices for Real Powertrain and Leightweighting Technology Options to Passenger Vehicles under Uncertainty
Authors: Erik Wilhelm - Singapore University of Technology and Design
Johannes Hofer - ETH Zurich
Lynette Cheah - Singapore University of Technology and Design
Publication details: Transport, Vol.32(2), pp.209-220
Publisher: Vilniaus Gedimino Technikos Universitetas
Date published: 2017
DOI: 10.3846/16484142.2017.1286611
ISSN: 1648-3480; 1648-4142
Copyright note: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Organisation Unit: School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 991029387702621
Output Type: Journal article

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Web Of Science research areas: Transportation Science & Technology

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