Journal article
An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football
International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.26(3), pp.511-517
2010
Abstract
Building a ratings model for forecasting the success of a sporting team requires the careful consideration of many factors, such as the home ground advantage and opponent quality. In this research, we build an optimized Elo ratings model for forecasting Australian Rules football (AFL), which incorporates the home ground advantage (ground familiarity and travel fatigue) and seasonal decay (initial ratings); ratings are then updated between games based on the difference between the expected and actual margins of victory. Match information gathered from the 2000 and 2001 seasons was used as a training set for the forward prediction of the 2002 to 2009 seasons. The model is then evaluated based on the number of predicted winners, the Average Absolute margin of Error (AAE) and the Return on Investment (ROI). © 2010 International Institute of Forecasters.
Details
- Title
- An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football
- Authors
- R Ryall (Author) - RMIT UniversityAnthony Bedford (Author) - RMIT University
- Publication details
- International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.26(3), pp.511-517
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Date published
- 2010
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.001
- ISSN
- 0169-2070; 0169-2070
- Organisation Unit
- University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99451405402621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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- Web Of Science research areas
- Economics
- Management