Journal article
A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration
Science Advances, Vol.12(27), pp.1-21
2026
PMID: 42397928
Abstract
Aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes from deforestation and subsequent regrowth in tropical moist forest (TMF) are increasingly well characterized, but carbon losses and gains following partial disturbance are uncertain. We synthesized 146 studies quantifying postdisturbance AGC changes relative to undisturbed forests across TMF. Immediate AGC losses (mean ± 1 SD; 2.5 ± 2.3 years after disturbance) following partial anthropogenic disturbances were greatest for forest fires (49 ± 26%), selective logging (34 ± 20%), and edge effects (31 ± 19%). Higher-frequency and -intensity disturbances significantly increased carbon loss. After 20 years of regeneration, AGC stock was higher in recovering degraded forests (41 to 117%) compared to secondary regrowth forests after complete deforestation (1 to 74%), indicating greater regeneration potential when forest structure is preserved. Our compiled database and associated meta-analysis improve accuracy and completeness for carbon inventory reporting and modeling. Substantial AGC losses and gains from distinct degradation and recovery processes are now better characterized, serving as an evidence base for policies to halt degradation and foster recovery for climate mitigation.
Details
- Title
- A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration
- Authors
- Viola Heinrich (Corresponding Author) - University of BristolAmelia Holcomb - University of CambridgeSimon Besnard - GFZ Helmholtz Centre for GeosciencesDaniela Requena Suarez - GFZ Helmholtz Centre for GeosciencesSusan Cook-Patton - The Nature ConservancyClément Bourgoin - Joint Research CentreRobin Chazdon - University of the Sunshine CoastDavid A Gibbs - World Resources InstituteFlavia Souza Mendes - Planet Labs Germany GmbH (Germany)Iain McNicol - University of EdinburghCharlotte Wheeler - University of CambridgeCelso H L Silva-Junior - Universidade Federal do MaranhãoBienvenu H K Amani - Université Nangui AbrogouaJean-Francois Bastin - Gembloux Agro-Bio TechTimothée Besisa Nguba - University of LiègeNa Chen - Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHuiying Chen - Tsinghua UniversityPhilippe Ciais - Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueRicardo Dalagnol - CTrees (United States)Xu Dou - Tsinghua UniversityQuan Duan - Tsinghua UniversityXueyuan Gao - Princeton UniversityAva Nafiseh Goodarzi - The Nature ConservancyBruno Hérault - Forests and SocietiesJo House - University of BristolDavid M Lapola - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)Mengyu Liang - Stanford UniversityZekai Meng - Tsinghua UniversityGert-Jan Nabuurs - Wageningen University & ResearchErin Poor - The Nature ConservancyLuke Parsons - The Nature ConservancyJohannes Reiche - Wageningen University & ResearchStephen Sitch - University of ExeterRuben Valbuena - Swedish University of Agricultural SciencesAnne-Juul Welsink - Wageningen University & ResearchSerge Wiltshire - The Nature ConservancyChao Wu - Tsinghua UniversityYidi Xu - Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueJinqi Zhao - Tsinghua UniversityLuiz Aragão - Department of SpaceMartin Herold - University of Potsdam
- Publication details
- Science Advances, Vol.12(27), pp.1-21
- Publisher
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Date published
- 2026
- DOI
- 10.1126/sciadv.adz1923
- ISSN
- 2375-2548
- PMID
- 42397928
- Copyright note
- Copyright © 2026 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).
- Data Availability
- All data and code needed to evaluate and reproduce the results in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials.
- Grant note
- We acknowledge funding from the following organizations and projects: HorizonEurope Nextgencarbon (101184989), HorizonEurope FORWARDS (101084481), and HorizonEurope OpenEarthMonitor (101059548): V.H., S.B., G.-J.N., R.V., M.H., and J.R.; European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) Biomass project (ESA ESRIN/4000123662/18/I-NB): V.H., M.H., Y.X., and P.C.; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) MITIGATE+ project: V.H.; ESA’s support of the R&D Coordination for the Global Forest Observation Initiative (4000140106/22/1-DT) and ESA’s WorldForest (4000147507/25/I-DT): D.R.S.; Bezos Earth Fund (grant no. 2022-00805): D.A.G., V.H., and S.C.-P.; and HorizonEurope Monifun (101134991): G.-J.N. and R.V. A.H. acknowledges funding from the Harding Distinguished Postgraduate Scholarship, NASA (NNL15AA03C). L.A. acknowledges funding by the CNPq (310652/2025-1), UKRI-NERC project Amazon-SOS (NE/X019039/1), and CAPOEIRA. C.H.L.S.-J. was supported by funding from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq Processes 304664/2024-3, 400634/2024-4, 443849/2024-2, and 401741/2023-0). P.C. and Y.X. acknowledge the support from the CALIPSO (Carbon Loss in Plant Soils and Oceans) project funded through the generosity of Schmidt Science and from the ESA-CCI RECCAP2-CS project (ESA ESRIN/4000144908/24/I-LR). D.M.L. acknowledges Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP grant no. 2023/09046-5) and Brazil’s Conselho de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq grant no. 305807/2024-2). J.-F.B. acknowledges funding support from the Francqui foundation in Belgium, from BELSPO through the Stereo iV AFRO-CARDS (SR/00/410) and Biodiversa+ CoForFunc (RT/24/CoForFunc) projects, and from FNRS EOS call through the CANOPi (O.0026.22) project. T.B.N. acknowledges funding support from AGRINATURA-EEIG/GEIE (European Alliance on Agricultural Knowledge for Development), ULIEGE, and ERAIFT consortium through the European Union funded project on “Capacity building of biodiversity practitioners, scientists and policy-makers for the sustainable management of protected areas and forest ecosystems in Africa: DCI-ENV 2020/416-397.” I.M. acknowledges funding from the FODEX project, funded by the European Research Council (grant number 757526).
- Organisation Unit
- Tropical Forests and People Research Centre; Forest Research Institute
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 991242341502621
- Output Type
- Journal article
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