A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model

Gang Xie; Anne H Roiko; Helen Stratton; Charles Lemckert; Peter K Dunn; K Mengersen

doi:10.1111/risa.12561

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A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model

Journal article

Peer reviewed

A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model

Gang Xie, Anne H Roiko, Helen Stratton, Charles Lemckert, Peter K Dunn and K Mengersen

Risk Analysis, Vol.36(10), pp.1948-1958

2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12561

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Abstract

a generalized beta-Poisson model

approximate Bayesian computation

QMRA

singlehit beta-Poisson models

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is widely accepted for characterizing the microbial risks associated with food, water, and wastewater. Single-hit dose-response models are the most commonly used dose-response models in QMRA. Denoting inline image as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, a three-parameter generalized QMRA beta-Poisson dose-response model, inline image, is proposed in which the minimum number of organisms required for causing infection, Kmin, is not fixed, but a random variable following a geometric distribution with parameter inline image. The single-hit beta-Poisson model, inline image, is a special case of the generalized model with Kmin = 1 (which implies inline image). The generalized beta-Poisson model is based on a conceptual model with greater detail in the dose-response mechanism. Since a maximum likelihood solution is not easily available, a likelihood-free approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is employed for parameter estimation. By fitting the generalized model to four experimental data sets from the literature, this study reveals that the posterior median inline image estimates produced fall short of meeting the required condition of inline image = 1 for single-hit assumption. However, three out of four data sets fitted by the generalized models could not achieve an improvement in goodness of fit. These combined results imply that, at least in some cases, a single-hit assumption for characterizing the dose-response process may not be appropriate, but that the more complex models may be difficult to support especially if the sample size is small. The three-parameter generalized model provides a possibility to investigate the mechanism of a dose-response process in greater detail than is possible under a single-hit model.

Details

Title: A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model
Authors: Gang Xie (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
Anne H Roiko (Author) - Griffith University
Helen Stratton (Author) - Griffith University
Charles Lemckert (Author) - Griffith University
Peter K Dunn (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
K Mengersen (Author) - Queensland University of Technology
Publication details: Risk Analysis, Vol.36(10), pp.1948-1958
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.
Date published: 2016
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12561
ISSN: 0272-4332
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Health and Sport Sciences - Legacy; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Sustainability Research Cluster
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99449252302621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

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