Abstract
Background
Diabetes is a major global cause of morbidity and mortality. The aim of the 11th edition of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas is to provide national, regional, and global diabetes prevalence estimates for 2024, with projections to 2050.
Methods
Diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence among adults aged 20–79 years was estimated in 215 countries and territories, using 246 studies conducted between 2005 and 2024. Studies were filtered by sample size, diagnostic method, study year, representativeness, and publication type. Logistic regression generated 5-year age-specific prevalence estimates stratified by sex and urban–rural location. These estimates were aggregated and standardised to national population distributions to generate national, regional, and global estimates. Extrapolation was applied in countries without in-country data based on others of similar income, geography, ethnicity, and language.
Findings
In 2024, diabetes affected 11·11% (95% uncertainty interval 11·05–11·17) of the global adult population, corresponding to 589 million adults (587–591), and is projected to affect 12·96% (12·91–13·02) and 853 million (851–856) people aged 20–79 years by 2050. Prevalence peaked at 24·79% (23·53–26·05) among those aged 75–79 years and was 23·72% (23·67–23·77) in adults aged >65 years. Prevalence was higher in males than females (11·55% [11·43–11·66] vs 10·68% [10·57–10·79]) and in urban than rural areas (12·26% [12·14–12·38] vs 9·23% [9·15–9·31]). Middle-income countries had the highest prevalence (11·46% [11·30–11·63]), followed by high-income (10·21% [9·91–10·50]) and low-income (7·47% [7·17–7·76]) countries.
Interpretation
In 2024, one in nine adults worldwide was living with diabetes. The number of adults with diabetes in 2024 exceeded 500 million and is projected to rise to close to 900 million by 2050. As the diabetes epidemic has continued unchecked since the turn of the millennium, stronger efforts are needed to slow its progression, with strategies tailored appropriately across countries and population groups.
