Asymmetry. Disruption. Futures. A Depth and Layered Approach to Understanding the Futures of Change

Maureen Rhemann

doi:10.25907/00196

As systems become more complex, early detection of disruption is needed to better anticipate events that could have second and third order of magnitude consequences. The overall research explores disruption, whether or not disruption can be anticipated, and what role our own human behavior plays, with a goal of enhancing early detection that can lead to better scenario planning. The research 1) connects gaps in theoretical and applied research through developing an understanding of the pre-cursors to disruption using four cases studies that explore disruption through qualitative and quantitative data; 2) connects Futures Studies and Neuroscience in an effort to better understand how the human brain contributes to disruption; 3) connects trans-disciplinary research to understand asymmetry as a precursor to disruption; and 4) proposes a 7-step process for identifying asymmetry as a precursor to disruption. The thesis argues that human behavior, as understood more deeply through Neuroscience, provides deeper insights in helping us better understand how the brain contributes to disruption and its role as the ultimate anticipatory system. The research concludes that asymmetry, as a prelude to disruption, often masquerades discretely behind the scenes and that, as humans, we unknowingly telegraph our behaviour in every move, expression, investment, use of technology, buying preference, or other activity. The thesis contends that human behaviour, as understood more deeply through Neuroscience, provides deeper insights in helping us better understand how the brain contributes to disruption and its role as the ultimate anticipatory system. The thesis concludes that early identification of disruption, by utilizing asymmetry as a precursor, can be an essential tool, much like detecting the first winter freeze before it happens, and that taking advantage of each stage of the process may open new doors for futurists and strategists to rethink scenarios. It also suggests that evidence of asymmetry in connected complex systems may rise commensurately with increasing energy in the system and be more readily identifiable through an asymmetry detection process. By identifying asymmetry prior to disruption, we may envisage a broader array of asymmetric scenarios, and by broadening the range of asymmetric scenarios, we in turn, may create more realistic opportunities for strategy to be developed to address the increasing vastness of connected systemic complexity and potentially create opportunities for advance detection and energetic release. The research puts forth a process/framework for identifying asymmetry as a precursor to disruption.

Asymmetry. Disruption. Futures. A Depth and Layered Approach to Understanding the Futures of Change

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