Asian Elephant Futures Research: Ancient Myth, Modern Practice, and Futures Metaphor within the Anthropocene — Transforming the Futures of Human-Elephant Relations in Asia

Russell Clemens

doi:10.25907/01023

This thesis investigates the communicative and epistemic barriers impeding effective, collaborative, and transdisciplinary approaches to human–elephant coexistence (HECx) in South Asia. Focusing on the endangered Asian elephant as both ecological and cultural keystone, the study situates the UNESCO Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR) in South India as a focal point within global conservation frameworks, such as the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). The ongoing decline of Asian elephant populations, driven by habitat loss, human–elephant conflict (HEC), and fragmented policy responses, reflects both a global ecological crisis and an existential threat to Dharmic civilisational identity. While conservation science has traditionally focused on technical interventions, persistent communicative and epistemic barriers undermine effective stakeholder collaboration and the integration of diverse knowledge systems. Addressing these gaps is essential for moving beyond conflict-driven paradigms toward sustainable, regenerative, pluralistic human–elephant futures. This research employs a multi-phase, qualitative design grounded in Critical Futures Studies (CFS), geophilosophy, and semiotics. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is applied to interrogate the litany, systemic, worldview, and myth/metaphor layers shaping HECx discourse. The analysis draws on secondary data, including policy documents, academic literature, and media across the 13 Asian elephant range countries. The study integrates a triadic, stage-based conceptual framework—territorialisation (empirical grounding), deterritorialisation (critical deconstruction), and reterritorialisation (reconstruction of actionable pathways)—to map knowledge gaps, discursive misalignments, and communicative barriers inhibiting effective collaboration and creative futures scenarios. A central innovation is the development of a colour semiotic triple bottom line (TBL) Rosetta Stone framework, inspired by the futures triangle, Samkhya philosophy, and Peircean semiotics. This framework is a product of the developmental arc of this thesis, and its integration as a methodological focus developed as the research progressed. The model emerged in the latter stages of the study and facilitates cross-cultural and interdisciplinary communication by providing a shared visual and conceptual language common for pluralistic coordination. It is operationalised through the alignment of the NBR context with global frameworks—for example, the IPBES, NFF, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The methodology also draws on the Viable System Model (VSM) to address systemic viability and policy “undecidability.” It incorporates scenario fabulation and backcasting to envision nature-positive posthuman, regenerative futures. By foregrounding ideal speech communication (Habermas, 1984, 1989), and integrating Dharmic values and local knowledge systems, the study advances a decolonising, polyvocal/polylogue Global South approach to environmental futures. The analysis demonstrates that dominant conservation discourses insufficiently address the deep underlying communicative, epistemic, and semiotic barriers impeding HECx. The proposed colour semiotic TBL Rosetta Stone framework (CSTBLRS) enables stakeholders from diverse backgrounds to bridge epistemic divides and co-create regenerative scenarios aligned with global policy instruments (IPBES, NFF, IUCN). The framework is also adaptable for use in graphical information systems (GIS). The research shows that decolonising conservation discourse can help foster more inclusive, pluralistic, and regenerative human–elephant futures. By advancing ideal speech spaces, grounded in colour semiotics, the thesis offers practical environments for stakeholder dialogue, scenario fabulation, and collaborative decision-making. This approach addresses technical and policy gaps while foregrounding the emancipatory potential of critical futures literacy and polyvocal communication in the Global South. In summary, the colour semiotic based framework offers a novel, practical tool for fostering sustainable and pluralistic human–elephant coexistence in global conservation discourse. Overall, the study opens new communication pathways for just and creative futures for humans and elephants in South and Southeast Asia.

Asian Elephant Futures Research: Ancient Myth, Modern Practice, and Futures Metaphor within the Anthropocene — Transforming the Futures of Human-Elephant Relations in Asia

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