Adaptive capacity in critical infrastructure providers: how lifelines are adapting to climate change

Pippa Huddleston

doi:10.25907/00840

The impact of climate change on critical infrastructure is a growing concern. Despite the recognition that critical infrastructure systems must adapt to climate change, there is a lack of understanding of what the providers of those systems require to meet the demands of the changing climate. Indeed, providers are rarely included in any considerations of critical infrastructure adaptation. This study addressed that gap by analysing adaptive capacity in critical infrastructure providers. Adaptive capacity is an accepted metric to assess how institutions are able to change in response to internal and external threats. The research followed an interpretivist paradigm and aimed to answer three main questions: (i) What is adaptive critical infrastructure?; (ii) What adaptive capacity is needed by critical infrastructure providers to administer critical infrastructure that is adaptive to climate change?; and (iii) What are the barriers and enablers to building adaptive capacity in critical infrastructure providers? A mixed methods approach was adopted, which involved a scoping literature review, cross-national survey and semi-structured, key-informant interviews in two case study areas: Christchurch, New Zealand Aotearoa, and the Sunshine Coast, Australia. The study revealed that conventional views of critical infrastructure often prioritize physical assets over social systems – specifically, the institutions, governance structures, and organizational cultures that shape critical infrastructure provision. This emphasis on physical assets can hinder adaptation outcomes by treating them as separate from their socio-ecological context. The study developed a typology of adaptive critical infrastructure which illustrated path dependencies between different conceptualizations of critical infrastructure and adaptation outcomes. The typology represented tension between the traditionally positivist worldview adopted in critical infrastructure studies and interpretivist approaches that are common in climate change adaptation studies. A definition for adaptive critical infrastructure was constructed that incorporates all aspects of the typology, promoting consistency in future research. The research expanded the definition of critical infrastructure to include human systems, with a focus on providers. Applying the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (Gupta et al., 2010), the study found that existing adaptive capacity levels among critical infrastructure providers in Australia and Aotearoa were generally good. However, weaknesses were identified in the capacity to develop and mobilise appropriate leadership, and to generate resources to administer adaptive critical infrastructure. The findings of the research demonstrate where effort should be directed to ensure these organisations have the capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Key informant interviews revealed that despite existing adaptive capacity levels, critical infrastructure providers are struggling to mobilise that capacity due to institutionalised risk-aversion, regulations and political priorities. The sector traditionally favours hard engineering and economic development, operating under hierarchical leadership that limits decision-making autonomy and diversity of ideas and solutions. Although critical infrastructure providers have historically excelled at linear problem solving and crisis management, the challenges presented by climate change are wicked and cannot always be solved by a linear approach. This study finds transformation is needed in the critical infrastructure sector – beginning with how leadership is mobilised. Thinking of leadership as an activity, rather than a position, may help form a more networked leadership approach which can encourage convergence of top-down and bottom-up initiatives. Climate change presents complex challenges, requiring a shift towards more networked leadership approaches that encourage visionary, entrepreneurial and collaborative leadership at all organisational levels. This shift could influence other adaptive capacity attributes, such as the capacity to generate financial resources, through the relationships between adaptive capacity indicators identified in this research. This thesis contributes to the discourse on adaptive capacity in coastal critical infrastructure providers by deepening the understanding of necessary attributes for administering adaptive critical infrastructure. In particular, this thesis advances knowledge through finding that leadership is the key adaptive capacity trait for adaptive critical infrastructure planning and implementation; and showing how leadership capacity can influence other adaptive capacity attributes within critical infrastructure providers. The study identifies opportunities for integrating climate change leadership scholarship with futures thinking to improve the response of critical infrastructure providers to climate change. The findings could inform further research, policy initiatives, and practice within the case study context, in other jurisdictions and at a national scale. With climate change increasingly affecting critical infrastructure, it is crucial to ensure that providers can build and mobilise their adaptive capacity effectively.

Adaptive capacity in critical infrastructure providers: how lifelines are adapting to climate change

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