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Velocity and seasonal shift in climate: ecologically relevant indices for predicting changes in species distributions and phenology
Conference presentation

Velocity and seasonal shift in climate: ecologically relevant indices for predicting changes in species distributions and phenology

Michael T Burrows, Jorge Garcia Molinos, Benjamin S Halpern, Anthony J Richardson, Pippa Moore, Elvira S Poloczanska and David S Schoeman
North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) International Symposium: Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans, 3rd (Stantos City, Brazil, 23-Mar-2015–27-Mar-2015)
2014
url
https://www.pices.int/meetings/international_symposia/2015/2015-Climate-Change/sci_program.aspxView
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Abstract

Oceanography Environmental Science and Management marine ecosystems seasonal temperature changes species distributions marine phenology changes
Physical changes in the world's oceans are influencing marine ecosystems in many ways, but the simplest effects are those due to shifts in location and seasonal timing of climatic conditions. Distributions of marine species are most often limited by the location of their maximum and minimum tolerated temperatures, while many seasonal events are triggered by seasonal temperature changes. Expressing changes in the physical environment in ecologically relevant ways adds predictive or comparative value. The 'velocity of climate change' gives the rate and direction of movement of isotherms across the marine seascape (km/decade). Observed shifts in species distribution correlate well for some taxa with predictions from the velocity of climate over the same periods for those localities, suggesting that this simple quantity has considerable predictive value. A second metric is the 'seasonal climate shift', giving the change in timing of changes in seasonal temperatures and potentially useful for predicting how timing of seasonal events such as reproduction or migrations may change with climate. Marine phenology changes are less well studied than distribution shifts, and this approach still requires validation.

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