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Rainfall on the Sunshine Coast: How intense can it get?
Conference presentation

Rainfall on the Sunshine Coast: How intense can it get?

Helen Fairweather
2012 University Research Conference Program Book, p.19
USC Research Conference, 2012 (Sunshine Coast, Australia, 09-Jul-2012–13-Jul-2012)
University of the Sunshine Coast
2012
url
https://www.usc.edu.au/View
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Abstract

Environmental Science and Management rainfall Sunshine Coast
Background: The climate change projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that we can expect more intense rainfall events than we have experienced in the past. On the Sunshine Coast over the last several years we have certainly experienced our fair share of heavy downpours, which have caused some significant flooding events. Aim: This research is investigating how intense these recent rainfall events, as measured at Bureau of Meteorology weather stations, have been compared to the intensity of events we should expect over varying durations for Average Recurrence Intervals ranging from 1 to 100 years. Methods: The analysis of measured rainfall will give an indication of the intensity of rainfall at several points on the Sunshine Coast, however the real interest is rainfall intensity over the entire area. The Bureau of Meteorology also has installed radars that provide an estimate of the relative rainfall intensity in real time. The rainfall intensity is represented by 15 colours with the scale given three qualitative estimates: light, moderate and heavy. These images have been archived and in this research are being interrogated to test if regional rainfall intensities can be extracted by calibrating the colours against the known point rainfall amounts. The statistical Intensity-Duration-Frequency characteristics of the rainfall at any point are available through the Bureau of Meteorology. The most extreme events will be mapped against these statistical characteristics to demonstrate the intensity of recent events compared to what would be expected from the Bureau of Meteorology's historical database. Findings: Preliminary analyses shows that the rainfall intensity measured at the Bureau of Meteorology's weather stations on the Sunshine Coast over the last three years exceeds what would be expected for a 1 in 100 year Average Recurrence Interval for a range of durations.

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