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Projecting the trajectories of climate niches for the global network of marine protected areas
Conference presentation

Projecting the trajectories of climate niches for the global network of marine protected areas

David S Schoeman
USC Research Conference, 2013 (Sunshine Coast, Australia, 01-Jul-2013–05-Jul-2013)
University of the Sunshine Coast
2013
url
https://www.usc.edu.au/View
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Abstract

Environmental Science and Management marine protected areas climate change
Marine protected areas (MPAs) represent a mature approach for conserving biodiversity, but a major weakness remains: MPAs tend to be static through time, rendering them potentially vulnerable to climate change. Here, we characterise some aspects of this vulnerability on the basis of climate-change velocity. Specifically, we use sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from general circulation models under selected representative concentration pathways to assess the residence times of SST within the global network of MPAs over the next 50 and 100 years. We also map the spatial trajectories of corresponding "thermal niches" over these time frames, illustrating how MPAs would need to move if they were to track SST. Results indicate that temperatures in tropical and mid- to high-latitude boreal MPAs have very short residence times, and that thermal niches tend to move rapidly polewards. In the Southern Hemisphere, patterns are complicated by the presence of large areas of cooling, which generate equatorward shifts in thermal niches. Importantly thermal niches for coastal MPAs facing polewards generally shift seaward into deeper waters, while those of MPAs on equator-facing coasts tend to move landward, often disappearing entirely. By contrast, thermal niches of MPAs on east and west coasts tend to shift polewards along the continental shelf. Each of these generalities suggests different challenges and opportunities for long-term marine conservation plans. Additional complexities are, nevertheless, indicated by corresponding analyses of surface pH, which often shifts in the opposite direction from temperature. This emphasises the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal dynamism into MPA networks.

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