Conference poster
Planning for Conservation of Threatened Rainforest Species in a Fragmented Landscape under Projected Climate Change Scenarios Using Habitat Modelling
International Meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC), 2010 (Bali, Indonesia, 19-Jul-2010 - 23-Jul-2010)
2010
Abstract
This study develops niche models predicting habitat distribution under current climate and change under projected future climates for Macadamia integrifolia, and M. ternifolia. These species are vulnerable subtropical rainforest mid stratum trees endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia in an area of substantial historical land clearing. M. integrifolia is commercially important as its edible nuts form the basis of the macadamia nut industry. Its insitu conservation preserves genetic diversity and permits ongoing natural selection. The two species range overlap, with hybridisation recorded at sites of co occurrence. Areas of common habitat are potentially important for genetic diversity of the two species through hybridisation and back crossing conferring increased resilience to disturbance regimes. Thus identification of extent of current habitat coupled with predictions of the impact of future climate is important for conservation of these two species. Generalised Additive Models (GAM) and Maximum Entropy models (MAXENT) were employed to generate niche based models under 1990 baseline climate, and then incorporated future projected climates at decadal intervals derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the A1F1 emissions scenario in spatial predictions of habitat. Preliminary results suggest an adverse impact of projected climate change on habitat distribution for both species, with less than 10% of areas of current habitat, including areas of common habitat, predicted as suitable by 2100. For M. ternifolia areas of suitable habitat are predicted to progressively contract, whereas for M. integrifolia, areas of suitable habitat are predicted to contract and shift to higher elevations and/or latitudes. It appears unlikely that M. integrifolia will be able to keep pace with predicted change in environment across a heavily modified landscape. The implications for insitu conservation are presented.
Details
- Title
- Planning for Conservation of Threatened Rainforest Species in a Fragmented Landscape under Projected Climate Change Scenarios Using Habitat Modelling
- Authors
- Michael A Powell (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health and EducationArnon Accad (Author) - Department of Environment and Resource ManagementAlison Shapcott (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health and Education
- Conference details
- International Meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC), 2010 (Bali, Indonesia, 19-Jul-2010 - 23-Jul-2010)
- Organisation Unit
- Centre for Bioinnovation; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99450214502621
- Output Type
- Conference poster
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