Conference paper
A Hole by Hole Simulation Model for Men's PGA Golf
Proceedings of the 12th Australiasian Conference On Mathematics and Computers in Sport 2014, pp.76-82
Australiasian Conference On Mathematics and Computers in Sport, 12th (Darwin, Australia, 25-Jun-2014–27-Jun-2014)
MathSport (ANZIAM)
2014
Abstract
Golf is widely regarded as a difficult sport to model. The focus of this paper is to build on previous research in modelling PGA golf tournaments through simulation. The aim is to identify whether there is a use for hole based modelling in tournament simulation. Tournaments have previously been simulated round by round, with player scores sampled from one of multiple round score distributions. Distributions were chosen by chance based on the likelihood a player would have a certain rank following each round dependent on their current tournament score. In this research, we introduce a simple player ratings system, and a means of characterising each hole on any given tournament course. These hole characteristics were used to create a score distribution for each hole. Player ratings were used to create hole score distributions for each player for holes of the same par. Bayesian Inference was employed to combine both these distributions, creating player dependent hole score distributions. Such distributions facilitate hole by hole tournament simulation. The 2014 US Masters tournament was used as a case study to compare the previous round based simulation model with the new hole based simulation model. Analysis of results for predicted final rankings indicated the hole based model was better than the round based model when simulation included the first three tournament rounds. This result was reversed when only the last round was simulated. Findings suggest the benefits of the more computationally complex method of hole based simulation are reduced as the tournament progresses. However, a comparison of simulation outputs across multiple tournaments would be required for this to be concluded.
Details
- Title
- A Hole by Hole Simulation Model for Men's PGA Golf
- Authors
- Bradley O'Bree (Author) - RMIT UniversityAnthony Bedford (Author) - RMIT University
- Contributors
- Anthony Bedford (Editor) - University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - LegacyTim Heazlewood (Editor)
- Publication details
- Proceedings of the 12th Australiasian Conference On Mathematics and Computers in Sport 2014, pp.76-82
- Conference details
- Australiasian Conference On Mathematics and Computers in Sport, 12th (Darwin, Australia, 25-Jun-2014–27-Jun-2014)
- Publisher
- MathSport (ANZIAM)
- Date published
- 2014
- Organisation Unit
- University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering; School of Health and Behavioural Sciences - Legacy
- Language
- English
- Record Identifier
- 99513760702621
- Output Type
- Conference paper
Metrics
50 Record Views