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Projected changes to population, climate, sea-level and ecosystems
Book chapter   Peer reviewed

Projected changes to population, climate, sea-level and ecosystems

Megan I Saunders, Rebecca Runtin, Elin Charles-Edwards, Jozef Syktus and Javier X Leon
Moreton Bay Quandamooka & Catchment: Past, present, and future, pp.245-256
Moreton Bay Foundation Ltd.
2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8073791
url
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8073791View
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Abstract

Environmental Science and Management population climate change temperature precipitation sea-level rise seagrass mangrove saltmarsh
By 2050 Moreton Bay region will be impacted by significant changes in environment and population size and distribution. The human population of the Moreton Bay catchment is expected to increase from 3.2 million in 2015 to 4.8 million in 2036, with migration the likely primary driver of this growth. Mean annual air temperature is expected to rise between 1.2 and 1.7ºC relative to 1986-2005 values by 2050 depending on the emissions scenario. Mean annual rainfall will likely decrease by 4-7% over the same period, depending on the emissions scenario, although significant multi-model variability in this estimate means changes of +13% to -23% are possible. Rainfall in summer will change little, whereas rainfall in winter, spring and autumn will likely decrease. Sea level will likely rise 0.21-0.27 m by 2050 relative to 1986-2005, and will impact coastal marine ecosystems. Seagrass area is expected to decline by 6% relative to year 2000 values and saltmarsh by up to 13% relative to year 2013 values by 2050. Mangrove habitats could potentially almost double their current extent, if they are able to establish in presently dryland areas.

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