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‘We’re expecting you’: Utilising the Emergency Department Patient Admission Predictive Tool (EDPAPT)
Abstract   Peer reviewed

‘We’re expecting you’: Utilising the Emergency Department Patient Admission Predictive Tool (EDPAPT)

M Jessup, J Crilly, J Boyle, J Lind, G Green and Marianne Wallis
Australasian Emergency Nursing Journal, Vol.11(4), pp.208-209
National Conference for Emergency Nurses, Networking: Crossing Borders, 3rd (Perth, Australia, 28-Aug-2008–30-Aug-2008)
2008
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aenj.2008.09.040
url
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aenj.2008.09.040View
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Abstract

Nursing Public Health and Health Services
The majority of acute hospital admissions arise from the Emergency Department (ED). With the current retrospective, reactive bed management approach, a common scenario is a full ED on a Monday morning, the hospital on ambulance bypass by midday, and the last minute cancellation of elective surgery patients. A more appropriate way of reducing access block is to manage inpatient beds prospectively, thereby booking elective surgery on days with lower demand from ED. The EDPAPT project aims to predict patient admissions via two Queensland EDs (Gold Coast and Toowoomba). A tool based on 5 years of ED presentation and admission data, and subsequent mathematical modelling, has been developed to accurately predict the number of acute admissions sourced from ED presentations on any given day of the year. Taking into account peak periods (holidays, special events), it facilitates efficient use of available resources. Implementation and validation of the tool using recent historical data has been followed by trial of the tool in a simulation against actual current data. The provision of evidence and supportive descriptive material may enable easy roll out in other hospitals. The impact of such a prediction tool has been assessed via semi-structured interviews with ED and bed management staff. Its potential to assist with the allocation of inpatient beds and thus to aide in alleviating two major problems of most EDs - overcrowding and access block - will be discussed.

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