Predicting pilot error: testing a new method and a multi-methods and analysts approach

Neville A Stanton; Paul M Salmon; D Harris; Andrew Marshall; J M Demagalski; M S Young; T Waldmann; S Dekker

doi:10.1016/j.apergo.2008.10.005

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Predicting pilot error: testing a new method and a multi-methods and analysts approach

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Predicting pilot error: testing a new method and a multi-methods and analysts approach

Neville A Stanton, Paul M Salmon, D Harris, Andrew Marshall, J M Demagalski, M S Young, T Waldmann and S Dekker

Applied Ergonomics, Vol.40(3), pp.464-471

2009

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2008.10.005

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Abstract

human error

human error Identification

error prediction

reliability and validity

The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting design-induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI techniques are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design-induced error, it is appropriate to use a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity.

Details

Title: Predicting pilot error: testing a new method and a multi-methods and analysts approach
Authors: Neville A Stanton (Author) - University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Paul M Salmon (Author) - Monash University
D Harris (Author) - Cranfield University, United Kingdom
Andrew Marshall (Author) - Marshall Associates
J M Demagalski (Author) - Cranfield University, United Kingdom
M S Young (Author) - Brunel University, United Kingdom
T Waldmann (Author) - University of Limerick, United Kingdom
S Dekker (Author) - Lund University, Sweden
Publication details: Applied Ergonomics, Vol.40(3), pp.464-471
Publisher: Pergamon
Date published: 2009
DOI: 10.1016/j.apergo.2008.10.005
ISSN: 0003-6870
Organisation Unit: Centre for Human Factors and Systems Science; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Law and Society
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99450027402621
Output Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Web Of Science research areas: Engineering, Industrial; Ergonomics; Psychology, Applied

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