Changing crops in response to climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation

George P Malanson; Ashton M Verdery; Stephen J Walsh; Yothin Sawangdee; Benjamin W Heumann; Philip M McDaniel; Brian G Frizzelle; Nathalie E Williams; Xiaozheng Yao; Barbara Entwisle; Ronald R Rindfuss

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010

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Changing crops in response to climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation

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Changing crops in response to climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation

George P Malanson, Ashton M Verdery, Stephen J Walsh, Yothin Sawangdee, Benjamin W Heumann, Philip M McDaniel, Brian G Frizzelle, Nathalie E Williams, Xiaozheng Yao, Barbara Entwisle, …

Applied Geography, Vol.53, pp.202-212

2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010

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Abstract

Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience

Human Geography

agent based model

bounded rationality

climate change

endogenous dynamics

land use change

Thailand

The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

Details

Title: Changing crops in response to climate: Virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation
Authors: George P Malanson (Author) - University of Iowa, United States
Ashton M Verdery (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Stephen J Walsh (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Yothin Sawangdee (Author) - Mahidol University, Thailand
Benjamin W Heumann (Author) - Central Michigan University, United States
Philip M McDaniel (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Brian G Frizzelle (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Nathalie E Williams (Author) - University of Washington, United States
Xiaozheng Yao (Author) - Virginia Tech, United States
Barbara Entwisle (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Ronald R Rindfuss (Author) - University of Chapel Hill, United States
Publication details: Applied Geography, Vol.53, pp.202-212
Publisher: Pergamon
Date published: 2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010
ISSN: 0143-6228
Copyright note: Copyright © 2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Organisation Unit: University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99449274702621
Output Type: Journal article