Strengthening confidence in the climate change impact science

Mary I O'Connor; Johnna M Holding; Carrie V Kappel; Carlos M Duarte; Keith Brander; Christopher J Brown; John F Bruno; Lauren Buckley; Michael T Burrows; Benjamin S Halpern; Wolfgang Kiessling; Pippa Moore; John M Pandolfi; Camille Parmesan; Elvira S Poloczanska; David S Schoeman; William J Sydeman; Anthony J Richardson

doi:10.1111/geb.12218

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Strengthening confidence in the climate change impact science

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Strengthening confidence in the climate change impact science

Mary I O'Connor, Johnna M Holding, Carrie V Kappel, Carlos M Duarte, Keith Brander, Christopher J Brown, John F Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T Burrows, Benjamin S Halpern, …

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol.24(1), pp.64-76

2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12218

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Abstract

abundance

attribution

climate change

distribution

hypothesis

impacts

marine

phenology

scientific method

time series

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature.

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Title: Strengthening confidence in the climate change impact science
Authors: Mary I O'Connor (Author) - University of British Columbia, Canada
Johnna M Holding (Author) - Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, Spain
Carrie V Kappel (Author) - National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, United States
Carlos M Duarte (Author) - University of Western Australia
Keith Brander (Author) - DTU Aqua, Denmark
Christopher J Brown (Author) - University of Queensland
John F Bruno (Author) - University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, United States
Lauren Buckley (Author) - University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, United States
Michael T Burrows (Author) - Scottish Marine Institute, United Kingdom
Benjamin S Halpern (Author) - University of California, United States
Wolfgang Kiessling (Author) - Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany
Pippa Moore (Author) - Edith Cowan University
John M Pandolfi (Author) - University of Queensland
Camille Parmesan (Author) - Plymouth University, United Kingdom
Elvira S Poloczanska (Author) - CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
David S Schoeman (Author) - University of the Sunshine Coast - Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering
William J Sydeman (Author) - Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, United States
Anthony J Richardson (Author) - University of Queensland
Publication details: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol.24(1), pp.64-76
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Date published: 2015
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12218
ISSN: 1466-822X
Organisation Unit: School of Science and Engineering - Legacy; University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland; School of Science, Technology and Engineering
Language: English
Record Identifier: 99448650102621
Output Type: Journal article

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